Floods, droughts and climate variability – From early warning to early action

The main objective of the PhD thesis by Gabriela Guimarães Nobre is to improve the understanding on links between climate variability and weather-related impacts of both floods and droughts. This relationship is investigated from global to regional scales, and at different lead times, with the purpose of achieving an impact-based forecast that can guide the implementation of early actions effectively before a potential drought or flood materializes. 

2019.11.15 Guimarães NobreThis thesis highlights some key challenges and topics that require further investigation in future research. For instance, it suggests that in order to improve the understanding of the impacts of climate variability, research is required regarding the dynamics of climate variability. It also proposes that for improving the understanding on the impacts of climate variability, better data and an investigation on the relationships between human and natural systems is needed. Moreover, this thesis indicates that future studies can enhance impact-based forecasting by improving the forecasting skill and lead-time of indices of climate variability, and by combining the forecast of indices of climate variability with socioeconomic impacts of floods and droughts. Lastly, further research can be performed to identify the underlying interests and incentives that are relevant to stakeholders for mainstreaming DRR into flood and drought risk management and policies, in combination with exploring the benefits of acting early. This thesis advances the understanding on links between climate variability and weather-related impacts of both floods and droughts, which can be used for generating impact-based forecasting and triggering early action.


acrobat icon Floods, droughts and climate variability